The conflict escalating across the Middle East right now is causing more than political tension. Strikes involving the US, Israel, and Iran have thrown the Strait of Hormuz into serious disruption, and that narrow stretch of water happens to carry roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply. When it gets choked off, the effects move fast and they move wide.
For anyone with a shed project on the cards, it's a reasonable thing to be thinking about. Steel prices are sensitive to exactly the kind of disruption we're seeing right now, and understanding why helps you make a smarter call on timing.
Steelmaking is an energy-heavy process, and that energy comes at a cost that shifts with the oil market. When crude prices spike, production costs go up at mills around the world. At the same time, freight rates climb because shipping runs on fuel too. Both of those pressures feed directly into the price of steel by the time it lands in Australia.
The current situation has seen freight rates surge significantly, and global steel analysts have noted that the market was already rising before this conflict deepened. War-risk insurance premiums are adding another layer of cost as shipping companies reroute or idle fleets to avoid the region. None of this is hypothetical. These are costs that move through supply chains quickly, and steel buyers tend to feel them before they see them coming.
What history tells us is that steel pricing doesn't creep up gradually during periods like this. It tends to hold steady, then jump. During COVID, prices increased by around 180% in under two years as supply chains tightened and freight costs blew out. The pattern playing out now shares some of the same drivers: disrupted energy supply, elevated shipping costs, and a market that's already under upward pressure.
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Australia is reasonably well insulated from availability issues, thanks to a diversified supply chain with strong import channels from multiple regions. A shortage of steel on local shelves isn't the likely outcome here. Cost pressure is the more immediate concern, and that's already showing up in freight surcharges and higher delivered prices, particularly for projects in regional and rural areas where transport distances from ports are longer.
The trajectory from here depends heavily on how long the disruption lasts. If the conflict de-escalates in the coming weeks, forecasters suggest oil prices could retreat meaningfully by mid-year. If it drags on, the cost pressures currently building in the supply chain will find their way into steel pricing more broadly. Neither outcome is guaranteed, which is precisely why timing matters.
The customers who tend to come out of volatile periods in the best shape are usually the ones who kept their projects moving rather than pressing pause. When uncertainty causes a general slowdown in the construction market, lead times often improve and schedules become easier to secure. By the time things feel settled again, those projects are already done.
One practical approach is getting your initial deposit down to lock in pricing and progress engineering and approvals, without committing to the full construction spend straight away. That keeps your place in the schedule and protects you from any price movement in the meantime, while still giving you flexibility on timing for the major build costs.
If committing to a full project feels premature right now, staged construction is worth considering. Starting with fewer bays and designing the structure for straightforward future expansion lets you address your immediate needs without overextending.
On-farm storage is another area where the current climate is sharpening the case. When freight costs move around with fuel prices, having grain or fertiliser stored on-site reduces your exposure to transport availability and cost spikes. A lot of farmers building storage sheds right now are doing it precisely because it gives them more control when markets get unpredictable.
Nobody can call exactly where steel prices will land over the next six to twelve months. What we can say is that the conditions currently in play are the same ones that have historically preceded fast moves in pricing. Getting your project progressed now, even just through design and approvals, means you're not starting from scratch when the timing feels right.
Want to see everything we can build for you? The Standwell Complete Building Solutions brochure covers our full range of structured steel buildings.